Now we have the FED uncertainty principle with Bernanke’s Cat. Jiggle the box around…is the cat in there?

Check out the latest from the Bureau of Liar’s Statistics:

Want some REAL unemployment data?

Today is Thursday. No holiday, No furlough day (CA.) Nothing special, just a Thursday. I drove from my house, an isolated mountaintop spread to the Sacramento Airport. A 75 mile drive, from 4000 feet elevation to 23 feet, through the morning downtown rush hour shitstorm at 8 am.

 Wait.

No shitstorm. I made the entire drive in less than an hour and a half. The roads were empty, both ways on I-5, I-80 and I-50.

Empty.

Thursday morning.

In 2006, that would have been a three hour ordeal of cussing and intense traffic weaving.

Now THAT is a DEPRESSION!

From Mish Shedlock at http://www.globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

Is “Uncertain” an Improvement?

Bernanke was pretty certain there would not be a recession, that housing was not in a bubble, that the unemployment rate would peak at 8.5%, that paying interest on reserves would enable the Fed to hold short-term rates above 2%.

Bernanke was wrong on every count. At least now he admits he is guessing.

Let’s recap the Fed Uncertainty Principle to see what it suggests may be certain or uncertain.

Fed Uncertainty Principle:
The fed, by its very existence, has completely distorted the market via self reinforcing observer/participant feedback loops. Thus, it is fatally flawed logic to suggest the Fed is simply following the market, therefore the market is to blame for the Fed’s actions. There would not be a Fed in a free market, and by implication there would not be observer/participant feedback loops either.

Corollary Number One: The Fed has no idea where interest rates should be. Only a free market does. The Fed will be disingenuous about what it knows (nothing of use) and doesn’t know (much more than it wants to admit), particularly in times of economic stress.

Corollary Number Two: The government/quasi-government body most responsible for creating this mess (the Fed), will attempt a big power grab, purportedly to fix whatever problems it creates. The bigger the mess it creates, the more power it will attempt to grab. Over time this leads to dangerously concentrated power into the hands of those who have already proven they do not know what they are doing.

Corollary Number Three: Don’t expect the Fed to learn from past mistakes. Instead, expect the Fed to repeat them with bigger and bigger doses of exactly what created the initial problem.

Corollary Number Four: The Fed simply does not care whether its actions are illegal or not. The Fed is operating under the principle that it’s easier to get forgiveness than permission. And forgiveness is just another means to the desired power grab it is seeking.

That was written on April 03, 2008. Many of the Corollaries have played out time and time again.

Things to be Certain About

When Bernanke says he is prepared to take action “as needed”, you can be certain of it.

Moreover, you can be pretty certain that he is about to take action soon, whether action is needed or not. The pertinent question is “What Action?”

On that, we cannot be certain. However, we can be certain that one or more of corollaries two, three, and four will be in play.

Finally, we can also be certain that whatever Bernanke tries will ultimately be a failure given Bernanke’s Deflation Preventing Scorecard is a perfect zero.

Hopefully this clarifies things you can and cannot be certain about, even if Bernanke himself is “Unusually Uncertain”.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

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Check out the site.

I got this from The Green Baron - they have a lot of “pump and dump”, but I don’t think this is one of them.

Good Luck and May Your Dow Never Jones!

I recently bumped into an old friend of mine whom I havent seen in 6 years. He now works at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and started telling me abut the coming collapse.

I was like, “Relax man,

I recently bumped into an old friend of mine whom I havent seen in 6 years. He now works at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and started telling me abut the coming collapse.

I was like, “Relax man,

 I’ve been on above top secret since like 1998!!!. I’ve been monitoring it all through there.” He was like, “whats that?” so I told him about our little, well actually pretty big now, community here.

He told me that He’s been working there for a year now and how all the traders, brokers, firms ….they all know that its about to be mass chaos in the streets. That the U.S. financial system is all smoke and mirrors and people are starting to ask questions and that its all about to go tumbling away.

He said all of the financial guys have purchased home sites from 5-100+ acres where they can farm the land, out in the country, mountains, etc etc.

He also said in the next 3 years inflation is about to go through the roof, $30 for beer, a loaf of bread will be $10-$15 its all coming and all of the stock exchange guys have been preparing, they all know it its 100% sure to happen.

Forgot to add**** They said they’ve all taken they’re money out of the banks and invested it in land, gold, silver, or stashed in vaults.

….anyway.

This does have some damn good advice, follow to the comments.

Here we go.

Can you believe that it is the Islam that has the balls?

No usury is a tenet of the Muslim Quraan, this includes FRACTIONAL RESERVE.!!

This is a currency that has NO NONEY MULTIPLIER!!!

Yet this is the ideal world envisaged by some of Malaysia’s activists championing the Islamic gold dinar and silver dirham as a new form of legal tender to replace paper money – a utopia that could see the light of day as early as the middle of next month.

This is when one such group, Muamalah Council, plans to implement the dinar system in Malaysia’s northern state of Kelantan. If information on its website is to be believed, the council has the blessing of the state’s Islamist government, Parti Islam SeMalaysia (Pas), to kickstart the dinar in three moves.

First, the state will pay a quarter of its public servants’ salaries using the dinar. Second, all state companies will accept dinar payments. Lastly, some 600 commercial enterprises will also embrace this currency.

Inspired by selective religious sources and backed by historical precedents within the annals of Islamic history, the gold dinar system is touted by certain fiercely proud Muslims as the Islamic answer to thwart capitalism’s woes.

The idea was first mooted by Malaysia’s former prime minister, Mahathir Mohamad, in the aftermath of the 1997 Asian financial crisis. He argued that the coins would never hang their possessor out to dry in the same way that paper money had. As precious metals with intrinsic value, gold and silver are more resistant to market fluctuations and devaluation compared to the US dollar – an argument he took to the Organisation of the Islamic Conference as a tool to battle western hegemony.

Today, Islamic gold dinar advocates would cite the recent credit crunch as proof. Indeed, the rocketing price of gold – possibly transcending a record high of $2,000 an ounce – can only strengthen their pitch.

While Mahathir’s grand plan for Malaysia to implement the dinar system by 2003 may have been unceremoniously scrapped by his successor, Abdullah Badawi, the idea has since gained currency beyond Malaysia’s shores.

In neighbouring Indonesia, for instance, an outfit known as Wakala Induk Nusantara (WIN) had begun minting Islamic gold coins for use in Australia, Malaysia and Singapore. Its spokesman, Riki Rokhman Azis, claims that the number of dinars used in the world’s most populous Muslim nation has more than doubled in 2009 to 25,000 pieces.

What is perhaps more striking is the UK connection to the increasingly globalised Islamic gold dinar movement. The Indonesian grouping is adhering to a fatwa issued by the South African-based cleric Sheikh Abdalqadir as-Sufi, a Muslim convert in Cape Town formerly known as Ian Dallas of Scotland.

Then there is Dinar Exchange, the British equivalent of Indonesia’s WIN. As the “official certified supplier of Islamic gold dinar and silver dirham in the United Kingdom”, the company had just concluded a month-long series of roadshows in May that saw it promoting the gold dinar to Muslims in key UK cities such as London, Birmingham and Edinburgh. The group is inviting more to spread this Islamic vision as dinar agents. For a fee, of course.

As the dinar movement gathers momentum, its propagators – which include some of the Muslim world’s most polemical figures such as the Trinidad-born cleric Imran Hosein – would doubtless dismiss Antony Lerman’s recent suggestion in the Guardian that no credible anti-capitalist doctrine exists today. To them, the Islamic gold dinar is perhaps mankind’s best-formulated answer to beat capitalism’s excesses.

Yet, as an anti-capitalist weapon, the Islamic gold dinar is far from mint.

It is motivated by politics more than benign religious values. The Kelantan example is instructive. Implementing the Islamic dinar serves as a political statement to Muslim voters that Malaysia’s Islamist opposition party, Pas, is more Islamic (and hence more legitimate) compared with its competitor, the United Malays National Organisation. Even in its pristine form, the idea as it is originally propagated by Mahathir could be read as a radical attempt at power politics.

But a more serious flaw lies in its contradiction. At the heart of the dinar system can still be found the same capitalistic spirit of commodification.

It lacks the egalitarian spirit embodied in socialism’s virtue of the common good. Its advocates say that the poor could never be taken advantage of because the coins they own have intrinsic value. But Britain’s recent gold-rush dilemma suggests that the poor do not always get their money’s worth – even when trading gold.

Like paper money, gold is also vulnerable to the manipulations of valuers, our gatekeepers of wealth. And let’s be honest, how many of the poor have stacks of gold already in their possession? Gold is a precious metal precisely because it is so rare.

On a wider scale, who is to prevent gold-rich nations from banding together as a cartel to fix prices at exorbitant amounts in the same way that the oil-producing nations of OPEC did?

Or multimillion corporations from exploiting poor but gold-rich nations? This is best exemplified in the case of Pacific Rim, a Vancouver-based firm that has filed an appeal via the Central American Free Trade Agreement (Cafta) to bypass local legislation so they can mine for gold in El Salvador despite local objections. In a world mired by climate change troubles, one also needs to mind the environmental cost of gold mining – an operation that involves huge amounts of water and toxic chemicals.

The Islamic gold dinar could not thwart capitalism’s excesses. It is only providing one more avenue for exploitation. For this reason alone, it will not have my buy-in.

Source: The Guardian

Not shabby, SHITTY!!

The ECRI Leading Economic Index just dropped to a fresh reading of 120.6 (flat from a previously revised 121.5 as the Columbia profs scramble to create at least a neutral inflection point): this is now a -9.8 drop, and based on empirical evidence presented previously by David Rosenberg, and also confirming all the macro economic data seen in the past two months, virtually assures that the US economy is now fully in a double dip recession scenario.”It is one thing to slip to or fractionally below the zero line, but a -3.5% reading has only sent off two head-fakes in the past, while accurately foreshadowing seven recessions — with a three month lag. Keep your eye on the -10 threshold, for at that level, the economy has gone into recession … only 100% of the time (42 years of data).” We are there.

Look at this noise—>

Thank You again ZeroHedge.com

Read More…..

This really suck the fat one. We all knew it would happen.

Welcome to the jobless recovery.

Good Luck and May Your Dow Never Jones!

Holy CHRIST!

With news like this, I can’t understand why we don’t ALL have our mortgages paid….why we aren’t all chilling on the beach smoking Cohibe’s and earning 11 percent!!

Dig this list, and also check out the HFT bullshit volume it creates, making it seem as if there are still some investors in the market trading….

What to buy?

FOOD.

Check THIS out!!

Thank you, ZeroHedge (again) and the Economic Collapse Blog!!!

“Can I get a witness??”

Now, the purpose of the “free market” as a “price discovery tool” has failed.

And it will never return….

The attached liquidity analysis by Abel-Noser indicates that the US stock market has now become a concentrated pool in which just the top 99 stocks account for 50.09% of total domestic trading volume. In June, the top 20 stocks accounted for 28.94% of all domestic volume, an increase of 2.2% over May’s 26.7% and a record. The HFT algos are increasingly trading less and less stocks in their attempt to corner just the most liquid stocks. Indicatively, the top 978 names represented 90.01% of total domestic volume, while the remaining 17,597 accounted for just 10% of all dollars traded. Of this, the bottom 12,112 stocks represented less than 0.05% of daily domestic volume. The top 5, or better known as the HFT’s dream team, were: SPY (10.5% of total domestic volume in June), AAPL (2.84%), IWM (1.92%), QQQQ (1.71%) and BP (1.39%). Oddly enough such previous HFT darlings as C and BAC barely made the top 10.

Some other observations from the analysis:

Read More From the venerable ZeroHedge.com  where the bullshit algo volumes are laid out:

We don’t even count anymore.

The corruption that was once kept from public view is now done in broad daylight, like so many other corruptions in this great nation and world.

And no one gives a fuck!

Good Luck and May Your Dow Never Jones.

NOT!   I love the BLS. It seems the Bureau of LiarHeads and SpinDoctors couldn’t pull out todays report. It is SHITTY. I mean SHITTY!

The Census factor will not save the day on tomorrow UE rate. But, a silver lining of continuing claims down?! Oh yeah, the blank checkbook for extensions has been slammed shut. Sorry, guys….that is bullshit too!

For the sector of commodities….welcome to the deflation!

Jobless claims were a disaster, coming in at 472k, on expectations of 455k. Prior was revised, surprise, surprise, higher to 459k from 457k. What is scariest is that between extended benefits and EUC, now that Congress has turned off the perpetual insurance spigot for the unemployed, dropped by -158,155 and -217,513. This is almost half a million people who just lost their weekly governmental stipend to buy Apple’s latest app, iTimberrr. Full report here. RIP Recovery: the economy has now entered the “total freefall” area. And in the meantime, the 2.90% on the 10 year is now implying the FV of the S&P just dropped by another 8 points to about 740. And as a reminder, Goldman’s NFP expectation for tomorrow is -100,000.

Here is Goldman’s Sven Jari Stehn explaining why tomorrow’s NFP number will be a catastrophe:

The key to the June employment report is the “Census displacement” effect—the extent to which the increase in Census workers in May reduced private sector payrolls and the reduction of Census workers in June will add to private sector payrolls.  A simple model shows that this effect has been sizable in the past, implying that private hiring may be boosted by around 100,000 in June. Taking into account the unusually high unemployment rate, however, suggests that the effect will be more muted at 50,000. Given the limited number of Census hiring periods, however, these estimates are surrounded by considerable uncertainty.

Although the ADP employment report came in below consensus expectations, our forecast remains that private payrolls grew 150,000 in June.  Our forecast for the overall change in nonfarm payrolls is -100,000, with Census payrolls falling 230,000 and other government payrolls down 20,000

Following May’s disappointing private-sector payroll reading and recent signs of weakness in other parts of the economy, this Friday’s employment report will provide an important gauge on the robustness of the recovery underway….

Props to ZeroHedge by way of Prison Planet!

Read the Rest…

Gerald busts in with some slams on all fiat currencies and what a load of shit the IMF and the UN is trying to push to “solve” the sovereign debt problems.

In what is the worst looking day since November of 2009……

The ONLY “UP” is GOLD

Everything else takes a fithy dump……..

Anyone want to buy some BONDS?

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Thank You BLOOMBERG!!!